Thursday, October 21, 2010
The Fannie-Freddie Problem is not as severe as the headlines would suggest
Page 10 of the FHFA report, gives forward expected losses under three scenarios. The third is really awful--it assumes a further reduction in house prices by 1/4, which would be a lot. But under the other two scenarios, the net cost to taxpayers (draws less dividends owed to Treasury) would be $6 to 19 billion. This is real money, but hardly cataclysmic. It does suggest that the vast majority of the losses are already behind us.