tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33399132.post8520640997668415034..comments2024-03-04T08:09:21.453-08:00Comments on Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog: Forecasting the Housing MarketRichard Greenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02161226214739034402noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33399132.post-63572401363798991792009-09-02T04:53:53.794-07:002009-09-02T04:53:53.794-07:00Interesting text. You have a nice blog. Keep it up...Interesting text. You have a nice blog. Keep it up!Montyhttp://www.rnbresearch.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33399132.post-49119164007265044912007-10-17T13:13:00.000-07:002007-10-17T13:13:00.000-07:00I think we do know that excess returns to housing ...I think we do know that excess returns to housing in many markets are highly correlated over time.<BR/><BR/>So, the fact that we have had some bad returns last quarter means, in a statistical sense, we should be likely to see more bad returns in the current quarter. Any reasonable forecast should incorporate this autocorrelation.<BR/><BR/>In terms of the economics of this forecast -- we had lending standard tightly sharpen last year; thus the pool of buyers qualified to purchase any given house at the old price levels fell. Thus, to reconcile supply and demand at the new lending standards, seems like prices have to fall.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com