Saturday, June 14, 2008

$4 per gallon gasoline and the urban land market

Over the past six years, the price of gasoline has risen about $2 per gallon. What does this mean for relative urban land prices?

Let's say the average household makes five one-way trips per day--for work, shopping, entertainment, etc. Let's also say that the average car gets 20 mpg in city driving. Each mile of distance to work, shopping, etc. is therefore now 50 cents per day per household more expensive than before. A household living immediately adjascent to work and shopping should then be willing to pay $5 per day more in rent than a household 10 miles away compared with six years ago, all else being equal. This becomes $150 per month, or $1800 per year. Assuming a five percent cap rate for owner occupied housing, this translates to $36,000 in relative change in value. Given that the median house price in the US is about $220k, this is kind of a big deal.

The assumptions here are pretty crude (particulalry the ceteris paribus assumption), but if gas remains at its current real price, we will see the shape of US cities change.

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agree in principle, but I'm dubious about things being of the magnitude that you described. There're plenty of ways to mitigate the costs of driving in the suburbs: carpooling, consolidating trips, ordering goods online, walking, biking, buying a more fuel-efficient car, and driving more conservatively are all things that cut into the city-suburb disparity.

I guess you covered that in your "ceteris paribus" disclaimer, but that's cover for a very, very static model.

Anonymous said...

mzanon: I think pride mitigates all that reasonableness you mention -- especially in places like Los Angeles. Cars are so wound up with ego here that I think it will be much more difficult to arrive at the world of walking and biking.

I just learned that Portland Oregon has public-use bikes, just like in Amsterdam. Promising stuff!

Had a chat with a young man a couple of days ago when I was in downtown l.a. We were talking about downtown folks being landlocked due to traffic, and the frustrations of working normal hours. He told me that he takes the train in from Orange County, and it only takes him an hour every morning. Floored me.

Anonymous said...

An interesting back of the envelope calculation. Of course, there are all sorts of mitigating steps people seem to be taking, such as getting a more efficient car and the number of jobs in the suburbs these days make it a bit more complicated. But, in any case, it looks like people in the exurbs are looking at a triple hit with the housing market, oil prices and the knock on effect of oil prices.

Chris Bradford said...

Driving down property values may reduce the amount of new development on the fringes, but no one will go through the suburbs tearing down housing. The existing suburban stock will get cheaper; it won't disapear.

Assuming a 1-2% net increase in housing stock per year, there will be little change in urban form, even if the new stock is concentrated in the central city.

obscurity said...

People who live in the exurbs who have seen property values decline to below its mortgage level encounter a structural barrier to a move to the urban core, despite the will to free themselves from gas prices. In a single-phase game, no one would chose the exurbs; in a multi-phase game - homo economicus, upside-down in their mortgage, will be stuck in the exurbs.

Just as it took nearly the full median term of a car loan (3 yrs) of gas prices over $3 to see the waning of the SUV trend, it may well take the median mortgage term to see this redevelopment take shape.

Regardless of how badly someone wants to move to the urban core to free themselves from the fuel price shackle, the declining housing values in the exurbs may ensure the fact that the majority of people are there for the longer haul.

Of course, my theory would refute the possibility of the very "white flight" phenomenon that populated those suburbs. I suppose you can never underestimate a person's willingness to abandon their most valuable asset when it becomes inconvenient.

Anonymous said...

My wife and I calculated how much we would save on gas when deciding to buy a house near the city (Houston TX) or farther away back in late 2005. We determined we could devote a couple hundred extra dollars to mortgage costs by living closer and driving much less. That was when gas was around $2 per gallon, so we have ended up saving a lot more than we thought we would.

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