Arthur Nelson is quoted in yesterday's USA Today as saying the ownership rate will drop one-half percentage point per year until it reaches 63.5 percent. His foundation for this forecast is a paper he was good enough to send me--I would link to it but I can't find it on the Web.
It is certainly possible that the ownership rate would fall to its lowest level since 1985, but I am afraid I don't find Professor Nelson's argument to be convincing, because his paper contains no model. Rather, he puts together some survey results and short-term trends, expresses his long-held disdain for suburbs, and argues that 57 percent of housing units added to the stock between now and 2020 will be rental units. This would be a sea change, as there has not been a single year since 1973 where less than half of units built were single-family, and in many years, the single-family share exceeds 70 percent.
An appropriate model of tenure choice would statistically model the relationship between tenure choice and a variety of characteristics, including age, marital status, presence of children, race, residency status, education, income and the relative cost of owning versus renting. Here is what we know based on the econometric literature on tenure choice (none of which Nelson cites): old people are more likely to be homeowners; married couples are more likely to be homeowners, permanent residents are more likely to be homeowners, white people are more likely to be homeowners (even after controlling for other characteristics), and homeownership rises in income and education. We also know that when owning is a good deal relative to renting, people are more likely to buy.
So a paper that purports to forecast owning needs: (1) a well specified model; and (2) forecasts of variables that predict owning, including income and relative costs. I don't know what either income or relative costs are going to look like in 15 years, and neither does Professor Nelson.
BTW, FWIW, I will take the over on 63.5 percent.
The homeownership rate may indeed drop because empty nesters and singles can't afford to maintain McMansions built for large families. Zoning has created a mismatch between what people want/need, and extant housing. This is central planning of housing, rather than a free market approach. Central planning has not worked out too well with most other products. Why should we expect it to work out with housing?
ReplyDelete乳酪蛋糕:推薦你全台最好吃ㄉ乳酪蛋糕!
ReplyDelete台中汽車旅館:如果要去台中住宿推薦鍾愛一生的汽車旅館!
看護中心:長期看護要特別注意哪些事項呢!
隔熱紙:汽車隔熱紙是越貴越好嗎!!!
高雄縣旅遊:推薦你高雄縣市的旅遊景點喔^^
棧板:環保棧板的最佳選擇!
拳師犬:來到我的寵物網站告訴你如何飼養可愛ㄉ狗狗^^
墾丁旅遊:夏天到了墾丁是南台灣最佳旅遊點耶!
彌月蛋糕:給寶寶彌月最佳的蛋糕禮盒選擇!
法拍屋:不景氣選擇房屋法拍屋正是時候ㄛ!
納豆:你知道納豆對身體有何功效ㄇ~~~
電波拉皮:年輕的最佳利器就是電波拉皮~一勞永逸~
瑜珈教室:選擇瑜珈除了環境就是師資，讓我們展現最佳實力!
服飾批發:全台最物超所值ㄉ日韓服飾網路平台~
保健食品顧名思義係指含有特定成分並具調節生理機能或可發揮保健功效之食品；因此，保健食品範圍包括了經衛生署認證之健康食品、機能性食品、膳食補充食品、健康補助食品、特殊營養食品等。因此除了衛生署認證的「健康食品」外，凡具有特殊機能的「機能性食品」如運動飲料；補充營養素的「膳食補充品」如綜合維他命；可供營養補給、維持健康狀況或養生的「健康補助食品」，如樟芝與靈芝產品；及因應特殊生理狀況的特殊需求之「特殊營養食品」，如減肥代餐食品等均屬之。因此，所謂保健食品不僅限於通過衛生署認證的「健康食品」，只要具有保健或機能性訴求者均稱之。
ReplyDelete大家一談到保健食品就自然而然想到膠囊、放眼市場，具保健或機能性概念且以傳統食品方式呈現的產品已開始慢慢嶄露頭角，如即沖即食大燕麥片、可調節血脂的食用油、可預防蛀牙的口香糖等，除了受到消費者歡迎外，其附加價值也隨之提高了。
保健食品、樟芝、納豆、樟芝食品、樟芝膠囊、納豆食品、納豆膠囊、養身食品>>>參考網站
Wide range of apartments in Barcelona, This fantastic city is the capital of Cataluña, the North East region of Spain with its very own traditions, culture and personality.
ReplyDeleteHere is what we know based on the econometric literature on tenure choice (none of which Nelson cites): old people are more likely to be homeowners; married couples are more likely to be homeowners, permanent residents are more likely to be homeowners, white people are more likely to be homeowners (even after controlling for other characteristics), and homeownership rises in income and education.
ReplyDeleteThose thinking of "design" and envisioning huge new developments in urban areas are completely missing the point, which is that the nation has enough housing, already built, to provide most of the supply needed for the next few years. There ain't gonna be enough new development to make a dent in anyone's lifestyle.
ReplyDeleteWith respect to home ownership, for those at the margin of owning, net subsidies may flow more to rental than owner housing. Section 8 vouchers support renting, not owning, and the mortgage interest deduction provides no benefit to those who don’t itemize–i.e., low income households.
ReplyDeleteIndividual investors constitute a fairly large but somewhat declining source of money for home mortgage loans. Experienced observers claim that these lenders prefer shorter term obligations and usually restrict their loans to less than two-thirds of the value of the residential property.
ReplyDeleteHere is what we know based on the econometric literature on tenure choice (none of which Nelson cites): old people are more likely to be homeowners; married couples are more likely to be homeowners, permanent residents are more likely to be homeowners.
ReplyDeleteA record 2.18 million homes sat vacant and available for sale in the fourth quarter, according to the report, up from 2.07 million in the third quarter and the 2.1 million a year earlier. The fourth-quarter reading on vacant homes for sale matched the previous record set in the first three months of 2007.
ReplyDeleteThe 2008/2009 recession is seeing private consumption fall for the first time in nearly 20 years. This indicates the depth and severity of the current recession. With consumer confidence so low, recovery will take a long time. Consumers in the U.S. have been hard hit by the current recession, with the value of their houses dropping and their pension savings decimated on the stock market.
ReplyDeleteNelson forecast that the homeownership rate will fall by about half a percentage point a year, to about 63.5 percent by 2020.
ReplyDeleteDetached, single-family housing is not a guarantee of owner-occupancy. Plenty of people rent in the suburbs and if the market stays the way that it is that's likely to deepen. You're also assuming that large suburban homes won't get divided into flats . . . and that energy prices will allow people to drive long distances to heat and cool large homes.
ReplyDelete