Ten Year House Price Volatility

I'm doing some work on reverse mortgages.  One of the issues confronting the analysis of reverse mortgages is long-term house price volatility.  While house prices can be quite volatile from year to year, this doesn't necessarily mean they are volatile for long-term holding periods.

Below are computations of 10 year, annualized, house price growth rates, standard deviations, minima, maxima, and coefficients of variation for the 100 largest US MSAs.  The data are the Federal Housing Finance Administration Purchase Only Index Data, and the computations are based on data from the first quarter of 1991 through the second quarter of 2018 (which means we have ten year hold data for 17+ years).  All data are nominal prices.

Note that in all cities, the average ten year growth rate is nominally positive.  The average across cities is 3.4 percent, with a range from .8 percent (Detroit) to 6 percent (San Francisco).  Neither of these should be surprising. 

More interesting (to me, anyway)  are the 42 cities that never had a negative house price period over a ten year hold.  Texas has a number of them (San Antonio has the maximum, minimum house price growth rate over ten years), and Pittsburgh and Oklahoma City are very steady too.  But a surprise to me are San Francisco and San Jose--markets that have has large short term drops in house prices.  In these markets, if one waited ten years, one never saw a house price drop over the holding period (again, we're talking in nominal terms here).  There have, however, been ten year periods in LA where nominal house price dropped by a shade under one percent per year.

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metro_name	andelta10	sdandelta10	minandelta10	maxandelta10	coefficient of variation
Akron, OH	0.015	0.019	-0.011	0.044	1.292
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY	0.036	0.025	0.001	0.072	0.695
Albuquerque, NM	0.028	0.018	-0.008	0.056	0.630
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ	0.029	0.029	-0.016	0.076	0.985
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA  (MSAD)	0.055	0.042	-0.004	0.132	0.772
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA	0.025	0.024	-0.017	0.053	0.977
Austin-Round Rock, TX	0.050	0.011	0.025	0.073	0.226
Bakersfield, CA	0.029	0.041	-0.035	0.110	1.422
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD	0.045	0.036	-0.010	0.100	0.781
Baton Rouge, LA	0.036	0.011	0.015	0.053	0.303
Birmingham-Hoover, AL	0.028	0.016	0.006	0.049	0.564
Boise City, ID	0.033	0.023	0.000	0.078	0.685
Boston, MA  (MSAD)	0.048	0.039	-0.005	0.105	0.795
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT	0.036	0.039	-0.021	0.093	1.080
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY	0.027	0.008	0.011	0.037	0.285
Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA  (MSAD)	0.046	0.035	-0.001	0.097	0.753
Camden, NJ  (MSAD)	0.033	0.035	-0.024	0.086	1.040
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL	0.031	0.045	-0.033	0.116	1.435
Charleston-North Charleston, SC	0.048	0.027	0.012	0.096	0.573
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC	0.028	0.012	0.008	0.044	0.407
Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL  (MSAD)	0.026	0.032	-0.018	0.070	1.219
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN	0.020	0.017	-0.001	0.041	0.823
Cleveland-Elyria, OH	0.012	0.020	-0.013	0.042	1.660
Colorado Springs, CO	0.035	0.021	0.005	0.071	0.607
Columbia, SC	0.026	0.015	0.005	0.047	0.570
Columbus, OH	0.024	0.015	0.002	0.043	0.612
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX  (MSAD)	0.035	0.011	0.012	0.054	0.305
Dayton, OH	0.011	0.014	-0.007	0.031	1.271
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO	0.048	0.025	0.007	0.090	0.518
Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI  (MSAD)	0.008	0.042	-0.052	0.067	5.142
El Paso, TX	0.028	0.016	-0.003	0.056	0.576
Elgin, IL  (MSAD)	0.016	0.029	-0.022	0.056	1.807
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL  (MSAD)	0.044	0.045	-0.023	0.122	1.016
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX  (MSAD)	0.031	0.009	0.014	0.048	0.302
Fresno, CA	0.034	0.043	-0.032	0.110	1.293
Gary, IN  (MSAD)	0.021	0.012	0.004	0.038	0.577
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI	0.020	0.024	-0.014	0.053	1.197
Greensboro-High Point, NC	0.019	0.013	0.001	0.036	0.708
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC	0.028	0.009	0.012	0.042	0.334
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT	0.030	0.029	-0.013	0.074	0.967
Honolulu ('Urban Honolulu'), HI	0.049	0.031	-0.011	0.093	0.622
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX	0.044	0.007	0.028	0.057	0.161
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN	0.020	0.011	0.003	0.035	0.522
Jacksonville, FL	0.039	0.037	-0.015	0.099	0.959
Kansas City, MO-KS	0.027	0.021	0.001	0.054	0.779
Knoxville, TN	0.031	0.012	0.010	0.052	0.397
Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI  (MSAD)	0.019	0.029	-0.021	0.058	1.546
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV	0.018	0.045	-0.041	0.095	2.524
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR	0.027	0.012	0.007	0.043	0.432
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA  (MSAD)	0.053	0.046	-0.009	0.140	0.864
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN	0.029	0.014	0.010	0.050	0.490
Memphis, TN-MS-AR	0.019	0.016	0.000	0.039	0.839
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL  (MSAD)	0.049	0.044	-0.014	0.126	0.896
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI	0.030	0.024	-0.005	0.059	0.825
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI	0.036	0.036	-0.008	0.083	0.994
Montgomery County-Bucks County-Chester County, PA  (MSAD)	0.039	0.028	-0.004	0.078	0.715
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN	0.037	0.009	0.020	0.049	0.253
Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY  (MSAD)	0.052	0.044	-0.014	0.116	0.843
New Haven-Milford, CT	0.032	0.036	-0.022	0.086	1.118
New Orleans-Metairie, LA	0.038	0.017	0.010	0.066	0.435
New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ  (MSAD)	0.048	0.040	-0.011	0.105	0.825
Newark, NJ-PA  (MSAD)	0.042	0.037	-0.013	0.096	0.887
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL	0.037	0.043	-0.027	0.117	1.172
Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley, CA  (MSAD)	0.047	0.048	-0.011	0.132	1.012
Oklahoma City, OK	0.035	0.008	0.022	0.049	0.236
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA	0.026	0.016	0.007	0.051	0.615
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL	0.034	0.039	-0.023	0.105	1.163
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA	0.048	0.045	-0.015	0.127	0.935
Philadelphia, PA  (MSAD)	0.049	0.030	0.006	0.094	0.598
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ	0.038	0.038	-0.017	0.107	0.997
Pittsburgh, PA	0.032	0.005	0.023	0.042	0.171
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA	0.047	0.019	0.020	0.075	0.402
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA	0.041	0.041	-0.019	0.100	0.996
Raleigh, NC	0.030	0.009	0.014	0.044	0.306
Richmond, VA	0.038	0.024	0.000	0.078	0.643
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA	0.039	0.050	-0.026	0.133	1.275
Rochester, NY	0.020	0.007	0.010	0.031	0.358
Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade, CA	0.037	0.046	-0.026	0.119	1.246
Salt Lake City, UT	0.042	0.016	0.016	0.075	0.384
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX	0.039	0.007	0.032	0.057	0.167
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA	0.052	0.046	-0.012	0.131	0.878
San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA  (MSAD)	0.060	0.033	0.011	0.118	0.547
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA	0.053	0.037	0.004	0.116	0.700
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA  (MSAD)	0.049	0.025	0.017	0.096	0.519
Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville, MD  (MSAD)	0.048	0.038	-0.011	0.109	0.790
St. Louis, MO-IL	0.030	0.023	-0.001	0.060	0.748
Stockton-Lodi, CA	0.026	0.051	-0.041	0.120	1.945
Syracuse, NY	0.025	0.014	0.005	0.049	0.566
Tacoma-Lakewood, WA  (MSAD)	0.039	0.029	-0.001	0.093	0.735
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	0.040	0.039	-0.017	0.111	0.966
Tucson, AZ	0.033	0.035	-0.026	0.088	1.070
Tulsa, OK	0.029	0.011	0.014	0.045	0.365
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC	0.043	0.034	-0.013	0.094	0.787
Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI  (MSAD)	0.013	0.037	-0.038	0.063	2.848
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV  (MSAD)	0.052	0.035	-0.005	0.112	0.675
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL  (MSAD)	0.042	0.043	-0.021	0.120	1.026
Wichita, KS	0.024	0.012	0.010	0.041	0.473
Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ  (MSAD)	0.034	0.031	-0.016	0.081	0.905
Winston-Salem, NC	0.020	0.013	-0.001	0.038	0.664
Worcester, MA-CT	0.036	0.038	-0.016	0.093	1.051