Monday, July 16, 2007

Cap Rates and the Ten-year Treasury Rate

The current 10 years treasury rate is 5.1 percent; Cap Rates on San Francisco office buildings are running around 5.5 percent.

On the one hand, rents rise, meaning that the expected IRR on a San Francisco office building is higher than 5.5; on the other hand, buildings depreciate and need to be recapitalized, meaning that net stablized net cash flow growth will be less than market rent growth. While office rents in San Francisco rose smartly last year, they had been stagnant for serveral years before, and office buildings always have the potential for substantial vacancy. So would I buy an office building at a 40 basis point spread over Treasuries? I don't think so...

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

40 basis points over treasuries???
I was so proud I got a client 88 over the 10 year on a fannie mae fixed rate humdinger (can't remember the swap spread)that I nearly had a stroke.

P.S. Do you know of a good resource that explains in a straightforward way how the pricing works on fannie mae fixed rate apartment loans? (Something you don't need to be a bond trader to understand?)

Anonymous said...

How about a -310 bp spread? SF apartment buildings are selling at cap rates around 3 at the moment. You can assume some NOI increase as units come off rent control, but still...

Anonymous said...

Criminy -- bad math. That should be -210 basis points.

Anonymous said...

^^Thanks!!

婚前徵信婚姻感情大陸抓姦外遇抓姦法律諮詢家暴婚前徵信尋人感情挽回大陸抓姦離婚工商徵信婚前徵信外遇抓姦感情挽回尋人大陸抓姦離婚家暴工商徵信法律諮詢跟蹤工商徵信婚前徵信感情挽回外遇抓姦法律諮詢家暴尋人大陸抓姦離婚大陸抓姦外遇尋人家暴工商徵信法律諮詢家暴感情挽回大陸抓姦外遇婚前徵信離婚尋人工商徵信外遇抓姦法律諮詢家暴婚前徵信大陸抓姦尋人感情挽回外遇抓姦婚前徵信感情挽回尋人大陸抓姦工商徵信法律諮詢離婚家暴工商徵信外遇抓姦法律諮詢家暴婚前徵信尋人感情挽回大陸抓姦離婚婚前徵信工商徵信外遇抓姦尋人離婚家暴大陸抓姦感情挽回法律諮詢離婚感情挽回婚前徵信外遇抓姦家暴尋人工商徵信外遇抓姦法律諮詢家暴婚前徵信尋人感情挽回">徵大陸抓姦離婚婚前徵信工商徵信外遇抓姦尋人離婚家暴大陸抓姦感情挽回法律諮詢