Monday, January 21, 2008

David Crowe estimates that the steady state demand for new housing units is 1.9 million

New construction is now at about 1 million a year, so inventory should be whittled down by about 900,000 units this year. This will get us about 1/4 of the way back to housing market equilibrium.


Anonymous said...

Isn't this based on old information? Is he incorporating the last few months -- builders are going out of business left and right, housing starts are plunging, etc. Major recession? Credit seizures? These numbers just seem silly (could be wrong of course).

Almost totally unrelated: why was Alan Greenspan hired as an advisor by Paulson & Co. and Pimco recently? What could he possibly offer them at this point? Or is this just a simple quid pro quo of some kind?

Will the CDS (credit default swaps) market take our leaky boat down completely now? So many questions... proposed solutions so very very unsatisfactory.

Anonymous said...

1.9 million happens also to be what the Joint Center for Housing Studies estimated as sustainable annual demand that existed in 2004 and 2005, from their State of the Nation's Housing 2007.

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