Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Testing Micky's Kaus' Election Hypothesis

I don't care much for Kaus' stuff, but he puts forward an interesting hypothesis: that every time Hillary Clinton does well in a primary, there is a backlash in the following primary, and that when she does badly, she generates sympathy and does better in the following primary.

I took her primary percentages each week since Iowa (using this handy dandy web site.)

The finding? There is a negative correlation of about .65 in her share of the primary vote from one date to the next.


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