Saturday, June 14, 2008

$4 per gallon gasoline and the urban land market

Over the past six years, the price of gasoline has risen about $2 per gallon. What does this mean for relative urban land prices?

Let's say the average household makes five one-way trips per day--for work, shopping, entertainment, etc. Let's also say that the average car gets 20 mpg in city driving. Each mile of distance to work, shopping, etc. is therefore now 50 cents per day per household more expensive than before. A household living immediately adjascent to work and shopping should then be willing to pay $5 per day more in rent than a household 10 miles away compared with six years ago, all else being equal. This becomes $150 per month, or $1800 per year. Assuming a five percent cap rate for owner occupied housing, this translates to $36,000 in relative change in value. Given that the median house price in the US is about $220k, this is kind of a big deal.

The assumptions here are pretty crude (particulalry the ceteris paribus assumption), but if gas remains at its current real price, we will see the shape of US cities change.

72 comments:

mzanon100 said...

I agree in principle, but I'm dubious about things being of the magnitude that you described. There're plenty of ways to mitigate the costs of driving in the suburbs: carpooling, consolidating trips, ordering goods online, walking, biking, buying a more fuel-efficient car, and driving more conservatively are all things that cut into the city-suburb disparity.

I guess you covered that in your "ceteris paribus" disclaimer, but that's cover for a very, very static model.

Teo Guillermo said...

mzanon: I think pride mitigates all that reasonableness you mention -- especially in places like Los Angeles. Cars are so wound up with ego here that I think it will be much more difficult to arrive at the world of walking and biking.

I just learned that Portland Oregon has public-use bikes, just like in Amsterdam. Promising stuff!

Had a chat with a young man a couple of days ago when I was in downtown l.a. We were talking about downtown folks being landlocked due to traffic, and the frustrations of working normal hours. He told me that he takes the train in from Orange County, and it only takes him an hour every morning. Floored me.

Anonymous said...

An interesting back of the envelope calculation. Of course, there are all sorts of mitigating steps people seem to be taking, such as getting a more efficient car and the number of jobs in the suburbs these days make it a bit more complicated. But, in any case, it looks like people in the exurbs are looking at a triple hit with the housing market, oil prices and the knock on effect of oil prices.

AC said...

Driving down property values may reduce the amount of new development on the fringes, but no one will go through the suburbs tearing down housing. The existing suburban stock will get cheaper; it won't disapear.

Assuming a 1-2% net increase in housing stock per year, there will be little change in urban form, even if the new stock is concentrated in the central city.

obscurity said...

People who live in the exurbs who have seen property values decline to below its mortgage level encounter a structural barrier to a move to the urban core, despite the will to free themselves from gas prices. In a single-phase game, no one would chose the exurbs; in a multi-phase game - homo economicus, upside-down in their mortgage, will be stuck in the exurbs.

Just as it took nearly the full median term of a car loan (3 yrs) of gas prices over $3 to see the waning of the SUV trend, it may well take the median mortgage term to see this redevelopment take shape.

Regardless of how badly someone wants to move to the urban core to free themselves from the fuel price shackle, the declining housing values in the exurbs may ensure the fact that the majority of people are there for the longer haul.

Of course, my theory would refute the possibility of the very "white flight" phenomenon that populated those suburbs. I suppose you can never underestimate a person's willingness to abandon their most valuable asset when it becomes inconvenient.

Brad said...

My wife and I calculated how much we would save on gas when deciding to buy a house near the city (Houston TX) or farther away back in late 2005. We determined we could devote a couple hundred extra dollars to mortgage costs by living closer and driving much less. That was when gas was around $2 per gallon, so we have ended up saving a lot more than we thought we would.

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Please read-Americans need to know!!!!!!!!

NHTSA Hearings 8/4/08

I just returned from the NHTSA hearings held on August 4, 2008 in Washington D.C., regarding the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) for NEW Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards (CAFÉ) for years 2011-2015.

IMPORTANT FACTS: You will not believe what you are reading.

1) The 414 pages DEIS analysis was based on an average gasoline price of USD $2.16/gallon for 2011-2020. A calculation approved by the NHTSA administrators/managers. Would you believe it???????????

2) The new CAFÉ rules were also established, negotiated and pre-approved by the NHTSA’s management and clearly with the influence of domestic automotive companies and their lobbyists. We have now established fuel standards for 2011-2020 that are presently and already met throughout the rest of the Western world today (see below).

As one guest speaker said today “are they on another planet?”

NHTSA “NEW Fuel Standards” (2011-2015) decision:

Automobiles are to achieve 31.2 mpg by 2011 and 35.7 mpg by 2015. Light trucks are to achieve 25 mpg by 2011, and 28.6 mpg by 2015.

The NTHSA is also setting a goal of 35 mpg on average for 2020.

America needs to know:

The European Union is currently establishing standards, with a goal of reaching 48.9 miles per gallon for new passenger vehicles as early as 2012. The current EU standard already requires more than 40 miles per gallon about 15% higher than the U.S. goal set for 12 years from now.

Japan currently has a standard of about 40 miles per gallon. Japan aims to further improve fuel efficiency by 17% by 2015, reaching 46.9 miles per gallon.

China has a current average of slightly under 35 miles per gallon. Chinese fuel standards are on target to reach the government’s goal of 35.8 miles per gallon by 2009. China will not only meet, but exceed, the goal just established by the United States for 2020 — more than a full decade earlier.

Australia is targeting 34.4 miles per gallon by 2010.

Canada is targeting 34.1 miles per gallon by 2010.

Under the current administration, purchasing an electric vehicle is becoming more of a necessity rather than an alternative.
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We have so many kinds of nike shoes that we are sure you will find the one that you like. Besides, we have the special
MBT chaussures.
If you like climbing then you can choose the vibram chaussures in our store.
You can find the Y-3 Yohji Yamamotoand
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