Friday, May 21, 2010

Peter Wallison: Opinions without Data

He writes in his screed against financial regulation:

In the rapturous days after Barack Obama's victory and the Democratic congressional sweep that accompanied it, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank declared that the new Congress would enact a "new New Deal." Few people really thought at the time that he or his party meant this seriously. After all, the original New Deal—as anyone who has read history knows—failed to revive the economy.

Indeed, the modern era of rapid economic growth commenced after both Democratic and Republican presidents undertook to lift costly and stultifying New Deal regulations.

Using the National Income and Products Account, I looked at real annual GDP growth between 1933 and 1980 (the stultifying years) and 1980 to 2009 (the "rapid economic growth" years). Between 1933 and 1980, GDP grew by about 8-fold, or more than 4 percent per year (actually 4.5 percent per year). Between 1980 and 2009, real GDP did slightly better than doubling, or 2.7 percent per year.

I try to respect people whose points-of-view differ from mine, but who decides to let this guy waste ink?


David Barker said...

I just did a quick Chow test to see if there is a structural break in per capita GDP growth between 1935 and 2009 and there is not.

This is just a growth over time model (log GDP on time), and I also checked consumption and disposable income. If I did it right, there are no breaks - not even close. So you are right about Wallison, but one can't draw the opposite conclusion either.

Unknown said...

"I try to respect people whose points-of-view differ from mine...."

A question I have again and again is "How is that conservatives don't feel a similar need to respect the viewpoints of others?"

Wallison must be aware of liberal responses his assertion that "the original New Deal—as anyone who has read history knows—failed to revive the economy."

It must also be noted that Wallison joins the mad conservative crowd in tacitly assuming that economic benefits trump all other concerns, like justice, equality, fairness, etc. New Deal and other regulations weren't merely an attempt to support economic stability and growth.

Sadly, this essential conservative tenet -- that economic benefit trumps all else -- has effectively been adopted in the mainstream discourse.

Matthew Saroff said...

I would also add that the flattening of income growth also happened as more and more of these families became two earner families.

So the addition of the 2nd earner also masked a very real drop in wages of ordinary people.

Richard H. Serlin said...

The same goes for the stock market. See:

Anonymous said...

I am left conflicted. Are opinions without data better than opinions backed by people lying with statistics?

I could go either way on that one.

aiya said...

Office 2010
Microsoft Office 2010
Microsoft word
Office 2007
Microsoft Office
Microsoft Office 2007
Office 2007 key
Office 2007 download
Office 2007 Professional
Outlook 2010
Microsoft outlook
Microsoft outlook 2010
Windows 7

led said...

Christian Louboutin Tall Boots
Christian Louboutin Wedges
Christian Louboutin Pumps
Christian Louboutin Sandals
Jimmy Choo Shoes
Moncler Kid's Jackets
Moncler clothing wholesale
Wholesale Moncler Jackets
discount Moncler Jackets

Anonymous said...

lesbian wrestling sex

Nadia said...

Estoy de acuerdo con este comentario películas pron salir mal impacto en la generación de jóvenes generation.if jóvenes les gustan estas cosas, entonces esa nación no conseguir sus objetivos y no conseguir el desarrollo de su país
accesorios maquinas de coser
patchwork maquinas de bordar
reparacion maquinas de coser
maquinas de coser
maquinas de bordar

Muhammad Alexander said...

Your post is superb because i am professor and I also searching some topics to teach my student smoothly here i see one of the best topics, and I hope you also share that type of knowledge in your next one.

the best seo company

john said...

If you need more traffic to your website check out the website in my name. It really helped me and i think it can help your website.

organic seo service

Ricky Martin said...

Very significant article for us ,I think the representation of this article is actually superb one. This is my first visit to your site

buy lortab online

dom said...

i agree with this comment pron movies leave bad impact on young generation.if young generation do like these things then that nation not get their goals and not get development for your country
drug forum

Anna said...

I think more people need to read blogs like this. Its so important to know how to construct a great blog to get people interested and you’ve done just that. The content is great, the videos are perfect for what you’re trying to say. Awesome, man.

doctor ratings and reviews | find doctor list | doctor reviews by patients

Bill said...

Great resource. There are a few questions I have though about the process. Is anyone else here a little confused? youth group activities

mark said...

Thanks for your post, I like this post very much.

mark said...

Thanks for your post, I like this post very much.
drug forum

Sabrina Taylor said...

Pretty good post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed reading your blog posts.
Best Graphic Design Site

saim said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Knox Karter said...

I like this post a lot and it contains a lot of great points and obsessions!

Utilities Logo

Unknown said...

Intersting...!!! exactly what i was looking for Ignition Lock Thank you so much for sharing such a beautiful information i will share this with my pals

talha said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

I am happy when reading your blog with updated information! thanks alot and hope that you will post more site that are related to this site.

melbourne pc repair

Unknown said...

I really liked your article. Keep up the good work.:)

Thanks for posting this. i really enjoyed reading this.

Thanks for your article,like your blog very much,well done
on site computer repair Melbourne

Unknown said...

Simple, useful and very Interesting Post. keep it up.
on site computer repair Melbourne