Sunday, November 25, 2012

The housing cycle is the business cycle--again

Ed Leamer said so.  I said so.  And I continue to think it so.

Run a simple bi-directional Granger Causality model of change in residential investment and GDP.  It turns out a model with one and three lags best fits the data going back to 1969.  That model's four quarter forecast for GDP growth is 2.6, 2.5, 2.1 and 2.5 percent; for residential investment growth is 6.2, 5.0, 4.9 and 4.9 percent.  (BTW, the model passes the stationarity test).

But residential investment has grown by between 8.5 and 20 percent over the past four quarters.  Let's say that an exogenous shock (kids moving out of their parents' houses) leads residential investment to grow by 10 percent.  The forecast for GDP growth now increases to 2.6, 2.9, 2.6 and 2.9, or about .4 percentage points higher than the baseline case.  This increase in GDP reflects more than the direct impact of residential investment on GDP.

49 comments:

turesta, said...

It can be described more roughly by the number of rooms. A studio apartment has a single bedroom with no living room (possibly a separate kitchen istanbul real estate).
A one-bedroom apartment has a living or dining room istanbul property separate from the bedroom. Two bedroom, three bedroom, and larger units are common.
(A bedroom is defined istanbul properties as a room with a closet for clothes storage.)


The size of an apartment or house can be istanbul property described in square feet or meters. In the United States, this istanbul real estate includes the area of "living space",
excluding the garage and other non-living spaces. The "square meters" figure of a house in Europe istanbul properties may report the total area of the walls enclosing the home,
thus including any attached garage and non-living spaces, which makes it important to inquire what kind of surface definition has been used.


In recent years, istanbul real estate many economists have recognized that the lack of
effective real estate laws can be a significant istanbul properties barrier to investment in
many developing countries. In most societies, rich and poor, a significant fraction of the total wealth is in the form of istanbul property land and buildings.

In most advanced economies, the main source of capital istanbul real estate used by
individuals and small companies to purchase and improve land and buildings is mortgage loans (or other instruments). These are loans for which the real property
itself constitutes collateral. Banks are willing to make such loans at favorable rates in large part because,
istanbul property if the borrower does not make payments, the lender can foreclose by
filing a court action which allows them to take back the property and sell it to get their money back. For investors, profitability can be enhanced by using an off
plan or pre-construction strategy to purchase at a lower price which is often the case in the pre-construction istanbul properties phase of development.

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

hi,Nice posting.it would be more interesting and informative to us.we have news about
real estate investing.visit:dave lindahl

Unknown said...

Hi,great post.Thanks for sharing this post.it will be more useful for us.we have
news about real estate investing.
visit:dave lindahl

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
rajni said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Subhash said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Subhash said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Subhash said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Subhash said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
suzana martin said...

Our short sale agent already proves that they are not only good they are the best short sale agent of 2012.Cause they are not think about their profit also think about full-fill our client's desire.

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

Great information about different residential properties. Loved the post about different Real estate projects.

Unknown said...

great article, you should check out bsm.uk.com they usually have great commercial property deals

Unknown said...

Thank you for this valuable information.I believe that one of the most important post. definitely important information show to others.Good job........
________________________________

spain property

Unknown said...

3C Lotus City Noida
Get real estate property sale, perchance, apartments, flats, plots, kothi, industrial property, and space, rent, land, lease, best investment solution and real estate service provider company in noida more info call # 9910007460.

Unknown said...

Nice post....
retailer list
expanding retailers

Unknown said...

Does this mean an increase in condos for sale? I've been looking for a new place to go, I want to get out of Edmonton, but I want to make sure that the housing market isn't completely overpriced when I move down.

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

It's great news that the housing market is back! I was thinking about moving soon, and I am looking at new homes in new jersey that I could possibly purchase in the near future. Thanks for sharing!

Anonymous said...

Nice blog and quality content.
also would recommend to choose residential property in
aranya homes
for best deals,also recommends to invest inEldeco Projects in Noida for best return on investment.this is my personnel opinion and experience.

Unknown said...


When you are planning to invest on real estate always plan it very carefully to determine what you would like to do on the property.

house for sale philippines

Unknown said...

Hi,post will be very nice.The information of your post will be very useful to us.
through your post i have learn many things about real estate investments.i have like
to follow your post daily.we have need essential news about real estate investments.
david lindahl scam will be not true.

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
deepu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
deepu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
deepu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

Pretty good post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed reading your blog posts.

home sales in Massachusetts

iphoneexpert said...

Wow great information about real estate. It is fantastic post. If you want relocation to Charlotte service then visit our website.

toffelnigar said...

americandestinyrealty.com is a world most popular realtor company and we already achieve various types of honour from government of U.S. cause only for our business strategy and in here our short sale agent's play an important role cause without them it's quit impossible to run this business. So thank's to our highly qualified short sale agent's for make a shining position in real state market.

Unknown said...

I think the established estate property agents have a wide selection of houses. we specialised in selling real estate properties and renting property in Malta. Thanks.

Estate property agents

Unknown said...

I think Australian venture capital firm of Investment angels or capitalists who provides the private equity with full of finance services.

Private equity australia

Unknown said...

I think Australian venture capital firm of Investment angels or capitalists who provides the private equity with full of

finance services.

Looking for Dubai investors

rajni said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
rajni said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

That is really cool. Thanks for sharing the details here.
CEA Approved RES Course Provider

Unknown said...

Searching for waterfront home for sale, our Real Estate company offers a fine selection including waterfront home for sale lakefront homes, lake view property, riverfront property, coastal, oceanfront, beachfront and properties on the lake. Whether you're searching for homes, houses, condos or lots,find your escape waterfront home for sale.