Karen Pence of the Fed gave a talk at the Homer Hoyt Institute meetings the other day. She had a couple of interesting points:
(1) With respect to auto loans, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (or TALF) seems to be working. Spreads on Auto-loan related ABS, while still high, have come down considerably since the autumn. Auto relted lending has also loosened since December.
(2) The availability of auto credit has an important impact on auto spending. As bad as the demand for autos is, it would be even worse in the absence of TALF.
I would post Karen's graphs, but I don't have a copy of a paper yet. They are pretty interesting and revealing.
TALF is an awfully good deal for investors, because they can lever up without recourse to buy pretty good securities. It is not alas available for retail investors.
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"(2) The availability of auto credit has an important impact on auto spending. As bad as the demand for autos is, it would be even worse in the absence of TALF."
One gets the feeling that it makes no difference. This is a massive, slow-moving mudslide (or the part at the end of Titanic where the ship is about to tilt up?). We can put as many guys as we want up there on the flow, shoveling away, but they're coming right down with it.
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